Many of the key hotspots where first-time buyers have benefited from the Stamp Duty exemptions could disappear in the next decade if house prices continue to rise as they have been doing.
Analysis by mortgage broker London & Country (L&C) – which applied previous trends in house prices to the next decade – found that 30,000 sales that have become exempt from Stamp Duty for first-time buyers, would not be eligible in ten years.
London in particular will be hit by further price rises. In ten years, 51% of the 52,002 properties that currently qualify for a Stamp Duty exemption, based on Rightmove listings, would no longer do so, L&C said.
The total proportion of properties that would benefit from the Stamp Duty cut in the capital will have dropped from 57% to 28% over the next decade.
In another example, 30% of properties in Brighton that currently qualify for the exemption would not do so by 2028.
There is some good news outside of southern England though. Nottingham will see the proportion of properties within the Stamp Duty exemption increase from 51% to 73% over the next decade.
David Hollingworth, associate director of communications for L&C, said: “It’s alarming that in cities in the south, so few properties will see any type of benefit from the Stamp Duty changes in ten years’ time.
“As a priority the Government needs to ensure that there is a plan in place to review Stamp Duty relief bands, to guarantee sustained support for would-be home owners now and in the future.
“Going even further, abolishing Stamp Duty for first-time buyers altogether would help all those looking to get on the ladder, with one less expense to worry about.
“Our research shows that many of the first-time buyers, especially those based in southern England, who are set to pay less or nothing, will need to act fast before many of the properties currently eligible fall out of the price bracket that qualifies for the cut.”